BC copper fluctuated and closed flat, with the inverted price spread of SHFE copper widening [SMM BC copper commentary]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract opened at 69,530 yuan/mt, closing the day with a negative candle. During the night session, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract fluctuated rangebound in the early hours and then dropped to 69,140 yuan/mt near midnight. During the day session, the center of copper prices gradually moved up, touching an intraday high of 69,890 yuan/mt, before pulling back to close at 69,530 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.16%. Open interest reached 4,914 lots, an increase of 13 lots from the previous trading day, and trading volume reached 4,289 lots. From a macro perspective, the cumulative effect of tariffs continues to drive up overall price levels, with US inflation data for June showing a rebound. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding trade relations with countries that have not yet finalised trade agreements with the US continues to attract market attention, thereby driving up risk-aversion sentiment. Additionally, tonight's US non-farm payrolls data warrants close attention. On the fundamental side, supply is loose, with LME copper inventories increasing by 3,550 mt to 141,750 mt. COMEX copper inventories have been increasing for multiple consecutive days and remain at elevated levels. On the demand side, consumption is weak, further suppressing copper prices.

The SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,400 yuan/mt. If based on the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract price of 69,530 yuan/mt, the after-tax price would be 78,569 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper contract is -169, maintaining an inversion and increasing from the previous day.